Putting Down A Marker

This will, in all likelihood, be the last post I make about British politics for a long time, if only because I simply don't have the heart for it any more.

So rather than look back at the events of 12th December 2019, I will instead present predictions for us as a nation moving forward.

Things will begin to get worse for, well, normal people. People like you and me. People that need prescription medication. People that use public transport. People that rent places to live.

It won't become a lot worse, all at once; but over the next few years, prices will increase with no commensurate increase in pay. Likewise, services will degrade, with no commensurate decrease in cost.

Taxes for the wealthy will be reduced. Taxes for corporations will be reduced. The savings will not be passed down to their employees.

Homelessness statistics will increase. If enough people notice and object, perhaps the definition will be changed, showing a sudden dramatic decrease in those that tick the "Homeless" box on a spreadsheet. Likewise, poverty - more people will slip below the poverty line until the line is redrawn.

Support will be cut for the vulnerable, resulting in an increased mortality in those specific sectors.

Another tower block may burn down due to having cheaper cladding, deaths perhaps reaching triple figures. Parallels will be drawn. Nothing will come of it.

There will not be fifty thousand more nurses. There will not be twenty thousand more police officers.

Hate crimes will increase. There will be less recourse for those who are victims of aforementioned crimes.

The economy will suffer. The stock market will not. Our national debt will continue increasing, despite the cuts in public spending.

There will be talk of a skills gap. News reports about a lack of people being trained to cover shortfalls in necessary services. This will be waved away as scaremongering, before the service is handed off to a private contractor.

Throughout all of this, there will be precious little protest. There will be no general strike. There may be an attempt but it will come to nothing. If a protest does happen, it will be heavily covered by half of the media outlets in this country and denigrated by the rest, and then forgotten about a week later.

There will be calls for us to put our differences aside and help people, because that is what will be needed, now. Not recriminations - support.

There will be those who are confused as to why others they know are willing to part from friends over their voting choices. There will be those who respond with vitriol because those voting choices have negatively impacted their lives.

There will be calls to change the system of voting. They will gain little traction, simply due to apathy. Statistics won't make much of a dent in this apathy.

Then Brexit will happen, and that is where my speculation will come to an end.

I hope - I truly hope - that I am wrong.

I hope that none of this comes to pass. I hope that everything is just fine, and that the hits to the country that we've suffered since 2010 are as bad as it gets. I hope that everything from here on in is up-and-up.

In a long while, I will look back, and I will see if any of this turned out to be true.

For now, though, I'm taking a big step back from following politics.

I just don't have it in me.

If you'd care to share my blog with your friends, I'd appreciate that! If you'd like to thank me in a fiscal form for entertaining you a little bit, I do have a Patreon right here, but please - no pressure. Thank you for reading, and check my social media to the right to keep in touch.

Where I Stand, And Why

I doubt you have failed to notice, if you are one of my UK readers, that there is an election around the corner.

In fact I dare say some of you are sick of it already.

Those of you who follow this blog might notice that I have leaned away from the politics more recently - because it has become increasingly hard to present a point that I haven't already addressed, and to not succumb to rage or despair. That is very easy - rage or despair, that is. Having seen some of the ways in which those in established power have utilised that power.

I'm not going to give in to that.

Most of you reading this have already decided who you are voting for - or if you are voting at all. I'm not going to exhort you. I make no demands.

I'm just going to get back to basics here, and tell you the decision-making process for why I vote the way I vote.

The French Revolution, 1789. During the meetings of the French National Assembly, to determine the extent of the powers King Louis XVI should have, there was a division in the assembly hall - a literal physical one. To surround themselves with those who would agree with them, those who wanted the supreme executive power of the entire nation to rest in the hands of one man - the King - sat to the right of the assembly hall. Those who wanted the executive power to be divided among the people sat to the left.

The press caught on rather quickly, and political groups themselves adopted the phrasing for rapid shorthand of where they stood - power in the hands of the few, or power in the hands of the many. A stratified, vertical society, or a wide, horizontal society.

I am part of the lower rungs of society. I am not one of the lucky few that a right-wing attitude is meant to help. Don't get me wrong - I acknowledge that I am privileged in several distinct areas, and that I have it better off than many - I just also have to acknowledge that my income alone puts me below the line of interest to the right.

That means that if it helps out the stock exchange and not the people that have to clean it after it closes, I'm not interested.

There are lots of arguments as to magic money trees and where the money is going to come from. These discussions always seem to come up when talking about paying for something that someone doesn't want to see paid for - and always seem to ignore the fact that there is seemingly endless money to pay for other things.

The fact is, governments don't spend money like people do. They don't work like a kid's piggy bank, and anyone that tries to convince you that they do is not fully informed on the process. It is not as simple as having a pound in your pocket and knowing how many apples you can buy with it. I will concede, however, it is good to have a large amount of income into the treasury - because then the treasury can be used to help those that need it, and can't be opposed with the argument of a lack of the aforementioned magic money tree.

Once upon a time, a significant proportion of this country's industries were national. They were run by the government, and any profits they made were put into the public purse. If they didn't make a profit, that was a thing that was easy to absorb - because their running was tied to the national finances, not their own bank account.

Then they were sold - and significantly undervalued - to private investment. Companies that answered to shareholders and upper management. The argument was that doing so would mean the companies would have to compete and that would keep prices low - this has been proven objectively false, as anyone who buys rail tickets will tell you.

The list includes BP (70s-80s), Rolls Royce (1987), British Gas (1986), British Airways (1987), British Rail (1995-1996), local bus companies (1988 onward), National Express (1988), the local water companies (1989), British Shipbuilders (1985-1989), all the regional electrical companies (1990), Royal Mail (2013) - all of these utilities and industries that you will no doubt have noticed have increased vastly in cost since their privatisation, while not necessarily increasing commensurately in terms of service provided.

Which means the money flows up, and not back down. Meaning that while wages slowly increase the cost of living increases a lot faster, meaning less money in the pockets of normal people, and less money in the government budget.

If political decisions empower shareholders over people using services, I'm not interested.

And speaking of increasing costs and support.

Homelessness and poverty are both on the increase, currently. There are ways to prevent both. This requires actual work, actual spending, and actual attention. It cannot be waved off as a non-issue. People, human beings, are made to suffer because of policy for a variety of reasons and excuses. This can't be allowed to continue.

Perhaps I am naive. Perhaps I am a sap, because I would be willing to put help in the hands of people who "don't deserve it" rather than prevent it being delivered to those who "do deserve it" - and you will find that what people mean when they use specific terms will vary.

If fiscal burdens are eased, people spend more money. If people spend more money, companies do better as a whole, rather than just the companies who have positioned themselves to force you to partake in their services - see above about privatising gas, water and electricity. If people and companies do better they spend more tax. Which means the country does better.

If fiscal burdens are made heavier, people spend less money. If people spend less money, companies do less well as a whole. This means less taxes. This means less for everyone.

Either way, those who can ensure their income is maintained, will do so. You will often find people in that position are more the kind of people that sit on the right hand side of the chamber.

If political decisions impoverish people rather than supporting them, I'm not interested.

There's more but I don't think I need to necessarily go into any further detail.

I won't get into debates as to which leader I believe is the nicest person. I won't get into Brexit - that horse is already dead, and I won't beat it any further. I won't get into voter suppression and the outdated first-past-the-post system. I won't get into the treatment of minority groups, not because they aren't worthy but because that is two or three blogs in and of itself, and all of it pretty damned partisan, which I am trying to avoid here.

It's just that simple. I can't support a government that will sell off our country's goods for a quick profit and leverage the subsequent losses on the people. I can't support a government that has overseen a hundred thousand children in poverty just before Christmas despite us being one of the six richest nations on earth.

You make your choice.

Just ask yourself if you can look your fellow human being in the eye after you put that X in the box.

If you are concerned about whose party best suits your political beliefs, I have shared this website before. It is called Vote For Policies. It goes off what the parties have said they will do. If you wish to see whether or not the party actually stands by what it says, you can use TheyWorkForYou to check the representatives voting records; no matter what a politician says, it is their vote in Parliament that counts.

See you down the pub on Friday, yeah?

If you'd care to share my blog with your friends, I'd appreciate that! If you'd like to thank me in a fiscal form for entertaining you a little bit, I do have a Patreon right here, but please - no pressure. Thank you for reading, and check my social media to the right to keep in touch.

Democracy Matters

So I am hoping that this blog might be informative to folks in light of the upcoming General Election on 8th June - and for that purpose I am going to write it as if you don't know me, because I am hoping that some of you won't. I am probably going to come across as a little condescending, and for that I apologise. I'm trying to pitch this to a wide range of political inclination - from lots to none.

Hello, folks. My name is John. I live on the Isle of Wight in England, and I have a marked interest in making sure that people vote.

Voter apathy - particularly regarding local elections, but also applying to the general elections that dictate who runs the country - is a bad thing, and if you are an apathetic voter, I am hoping that I can change your mind.

I am not totally unbiased. I will state this plainly and at the beginning of this blog. Those who follow it regularly will be aware that I am a very left-leaning individual, with a taste for Keynesian economics and a focus on the greatest good for the greatest number. If any of the terms I just used throw you off - no judgement, that's just part of what this blog is hoping to achieve.

So, let's have some sample statements, and my response to them.

Why should I vote?

Well, that's a good question. Why don't you?

I don't understand politics.

It's never a bad thing to learn. It can be difficult to get into the subject, but it is important to at least have a basic grasp of the principles upon which the world is run, because then it helps you avoid the next statement.

It doesn't affect me.

This is a fallacy, but it is a very widely-held one. Almost every aspect of life is altered or adjusted by the decisions made by our leaders, more in terms of central government, but also in local government such as our local council. In large part, how much our money is worth and how much of it we get for a day's work is influenced by their attitudes and the laws they create - and so few aspects of our lives are entirely divorced from money.

Politics affects the schools that our children attend, and how well-prepared they are for the future. It affects our jobs, what legal protections we are entitled to while working them, and the kind of healthcare we can receive if we ever fall sick. If, somehow, one can live without ever spending money and never attending a school or a doctor's surgery - then politics can still affect you, as you are still beholden by the laws the politicians create. These laws can vary, from freedom of speech, to banning certain sexualities or religions. This is how politics can have an effect on your life, no matter how far you remove yourself from modern society.

They're all the same anyway / You can't trust any of them / They're just as bad as each other / They'll say one thing and do another.

False. Every Member of Parliament has a voting record, which you can view here. All of their votes are recorded as an article of law. No matter what an MP says, no matter what others say about them - when it comes down to the vote in Parliament, this is where their colours shine, because this is what creates the laws and changes in society. They can lie outside of parliament all they want. When they are casting votes, if they lie, their lie becomes truth. So, find out who your local MP is - a google search will do it - and use this super-useful website to ascertain what votes they have partaken in, and more importantly, HOW they voted.

There's certain large swathes of the world's population that would imply that their leaders are perhaps worse than the alternatives - the democratically-elected regimes of Robert Mugabe and Daniel Francois Malan, for example. It's not all bad. The arguably very positive leadership of Clement Attlee after the second world war pulled the country out of a terrible situation.

I'm exercising my right not to vote. I'm not voting in protest.

That is an interesting choice, and nobody can force you to vote. However, it is a basically invisible protest. Nobody will assume that someone that doesn't turn up to the ballot box is protesting. Apathy is far more likely. Perhaps consider voting for a third party, or for whoever most represents your views rather than against a specific issue.

But I'm just one person. One vote can't make a difference, surely.

The way that our current system of government is arranged means that it is possible for local government and for Members of Parliament from various constituencies don't actually need a very large majority to win. This is very deliberate. What it also means is that individual voters, in some situations, wield a lot of power. In the past 70 years, over two dozen MPs have won their seats with a majority of thirty or less.

On the scale of a local election, such as the most recent one here - three of the districts had a majority of less than ten. One local area was won by the Tories by two votes. Literally, two votes. So the difference that can be made by just three people deciding to vote are actually considerable. The actual number of people who voted for the Conservative party to be in local government came out to 12% of the population of this island, and yet, they took a vast swathe of seats.

That means our voting system isn't fair or representative. Why should I take part in it?

There's a great amount of pressure and political campaigning around voting reform. It is perfectly possible to support and push for reform, while also using the current system to try and secure favourable government - perhaps someone who has, in the past, supported or spoken positively about electoral reform? No reason to not use the current flawed system while at the same time trying to bring in a better one. We can do that.

Why are you cracking down on the apathetic people? What's the problem with voter apathy?

In a democracy that is meant to be representative of the people it governs, people not showing up to vote means that they aren't being represented. It's the first hurdle - before the actual mechanism of voting gets in the way. Certain governments and politicians profit from this low turnout - for example, in the local election of yesterday, only 30% of the island's population (41% of the valid electorate) actually voted. Given that 12% of them were sufficient to incite such a convincing win for the Conservative party, that is a troublingly small number of voters. In one district, only three people out of the 1,187 population didn't vote - in another, barely a quarter showed up. These numbers could swing the election very rapidly in another direction.

The people that will always show up - the people that will vote day or night, rain or snow, regardless of how hopeless it seems - often contain the radicals and extremists of each side of the political divide. The opinions of the average member of society are under-represented at the ballot box when turnout is so low - but then people are surprised when the average member of society is effectively punished by new laws or changes of funding or welfare. If a politician is as selfish and self-serving as one would be led to believe, then it is only in their interest to reward those who actually show up to vote. That in itself should be a good reason to make the trip to the poll.

I heard in the news that...

Always, always, always look for a different source. Especially in England, especially in regard to the press. I've written another blog just here about why they can be unreliable. Never believe the first thing you are told. Check up on the facts. In fact I urge you to check up on everything I have just told you - because being aware of more than one side of an argument is key in politics. Let us not forget that we should be voting for those that reflect our needs and values. The owners of media outlets are the same - but they can reach millions every day to try and convince them to do the same.

How do I even decide who to vote for? This whole thing is a huge mess when you look at it objectively.

I hear you, me from the past. Here's the thing. Decide, first, who you are and what you want the world to be like. Decide what you think is right and fair. Then, find politicians and parties that SAY they match what you want, and have voted to ACTUALLY match what you want. Talk to your friends and family - but don't buy the first horse you are offered. Talk to people you know that know about politics. Hear their opinions. Check out other people's opinions. Absorb information on the topic. Take an hour out of one day to researching the political parties and what they stand for.

Here's a good starting point; it defines the terms Left and Right. (Edit - I have also been introduced to voteforpolicies.org.uk which may help out a lot too - removing the cults of personality and image manipulation, and leaving behind only policies. Thankyou Sarah!)

So there it is. My attempt to claw some sense out of the local elections led me to see how few people voted, and I can't ignore the fact that it is a problem. So this is what I can start to do about it.

If this is at all useful, if there is any merit to be found in this, please share it - share it with your friends that aren't sure, or even the ones that are. Spread this around and we will do what we can to ease voter apathy.

Thank you for your time.